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Mathematical Model for Monkeypox Virus Transmission Dynamics
Author: Emeka PC, Ounorah MO*, Eguda FY and Babangida BG
Publisher: Epidemiology: Open Access
Published: 2018
Section: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Abstract
A deterministic mathematical model was developed for the transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus. The
model incorporates imperfect vaccine compartment for the human sub-population. The equilibrium states of the
model equation were obtained analyzed for stability. The disease free equilibrium of the model is stable when the
number of secondary infections as a result of the introduction of a single infected individual into a vaccinated
susceptible population is less than unity (ROV<1). The system was shown to have one unique endemic equilibrium
which is stable when ROV<1, this rules out the possibility of backward bifurcation, which connotes that interventions
capable of reducing the basic effective reproductive (ROV) less than unity will be sufficient to contain the infection.
Numerical simulation was carried it to underscore the role of weak, medium and strong immune system on some
epidemiological states, as well as the effect of infection and vaccination rates on the prevalence and susceptible
respectively.