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Mathematical Model for Monkeypox Virus Transmission Dynamics

Author: Emeka PC, Ounorah MO*, Eguda FY and Babangida BG
Publisher: Epidemiology: Open Access
Published: 2018
Section: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Abstract

A deterministic mathematical model was developed for the transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus. The

model incorporates imperfect vaccine compartment for the human sub-population. The equilibrium states of the

model equation were obtained analyzed for stability. The disease free equilibrium of the model is stable when the

number of secondary infections as a result of the introduction of a single infected individual into a vaccinated

susceptible population is less than unity (ROV<1). The system was shown to have one unique endemic equilibrium

which is stable when ROV<1, this rules out the possibility of backward bifurcation, which connotes that interventions

capable of reducing the basic effective reproductive (ROV) less than unity will be sufficient to contain the infection.

Numerical simulation was carried it to underscore the role of weak, medium and strong immune system on some

epidemiological states, as well as the effect of infection and vaccination rates on the prevalence and susceptible

respectively.